Alex Guerrero And The Downside Of The Cuban Market

By Bobby DeMuro
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Updated: March 4, 2015

(Photo via @Dodgers)

It goes without saying that the Dodgers have had recent success in the market for Cuban baseball players. Yasiel Puig will be a mainstay for the foreseeable future. Onelki Garcia first came up with the team, though he’s now a member of the White Sox. And Erisbel Arruebarrena, despite a slow 2014, is a young infielder that has time to grow into a serviceable big leaguer.

And then there’s the fourth Cuban Dodger, Alex Guerrero. Guerrero, 28, is adamant that he will not go to AAA this year. That’s a problem. When the Dodgers signed him to a four-year, $28-million deal before last season, one of the stipulations was that he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues after his first season without his permission. Based on his recent comments, that permission will not be granted.

Short of granting that demotion, Guerrero leaves the Dodgers with few options, only allowing for a trade or outright release if he can’t stick with the club. That’s a tough proposition with so much money on the line for his services as, at best, a backup infielder. And it should be a warning sign going forward for a team that just 12 months ago seemed to have the edge on signing Cuban talent.

After Yoan Moncada’s bidding war, teams have shown they will continue to pay exorbitant amounts for talent that, while projectable, is also raw, untested, and far from certain. And not every one of those players will end up like Puig; just like in the draft or free agency, more players will bust than succeed, and more teams will lose money on prospective talent than find hidden gems on the fields of Havana.

Guerrero had a great 2014 at AAA Albuquerque, hitting .329/.354/.613 in 243 PAs across 65 games before being promoted. However, he also missed time after having part of his ear bitten off by Miguel Olivo in a dugout dust-up (to be fair when assigning blame, that was more of a Miguel Olivo problem than an Alex Guerrero problem). Nevertheless, the injury cost him two months and a mid-season call up, and when he finally arrived in September, he only went 1-for-13 with 6 strikeouts in 11 games.

Alex Guerrero must find a spot this year. [Image via @truebluela]

One reason Guerrero didn’t land with the big league club last year was his defense. He’s not a plus defender, and with Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins at the middle infield spots, he won’t beat either one of them out for a starting job this year. That leaves him to scrap for back-up at-bats with Justin Turner (who’s probably all but locked up a role already) and Darwin Barney (who can play every infield position and the outfield).

In other words, the 2014 status quo may continue in 2015, and Guerrero, despite hitting the cover off the ball at AAA, still might not find a place in Los Angeles. Should he be released (or traded), $28 million to a guy who could end up with as few as 13 Major League at-bats and one total base is tough to stomach. Plus, Guerrero can opt out of his contract after this year, making him a very, very unattractive trade piece. What kind of team would give up something for a one-year rental on an untested not-yet Major Leaguer? (Actually… maybe the Padres.)

With recent success stories like Puig, Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes, Odrisamer Despaigne, and Jorge Soler, the market on Cuban talent is booming. But for as many Puigs as there are, there are even more Guerreros, long on money and short on a big league track record.

Maybe this will all be a moot point if Guerrero makes the team come April. If he doesn’t, and he’s traded or released, it’ll be interesting to see how it affects the seemingly bottomless pit of money being thrown at Cuban prospects.

Dropping a $31.5 million bonus on a 19-year old (as the Red Sox did with Moncada) is not sustainable, and most Cuban prospects who fetch seven-figure contracts will not work out. The next thirty days of Alex Guerrero’s career may go a long way in leveling out the market.

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